prediction of maximum temperatures through artificial neural network case study: ardabli township
نویسندگان
چکیده
â the prediction of maximum temperatures as one of the most important climatic parameters due to climate change, global warming and the recent drought will provide definitely more opportunity for planning and the provision of necessary arrangements for the planners. maximum temperatures are much important in management of natural and water resources, agriculture, development of pests and diseases, flood and snow melting, evaporation and transpiration, drought, etc. today, with developing of intelligent and expanded models in experimental science, including climatology, the necessity for alternative compared to old models will important. one of these methods is artificial neural network derived from artificial intelligence components which has important applications in the field of atmospheric sciences through prediction and calculation of climatic parameters. in this study, using the variables including average relative humidity, average wind speed, total sunshine, average minimum temperature and monthly average maximum temperature as input multi layer perceptron (mlp) network, have been predicted monthly average maximum temperature in ardabil synoptic station. examined parameters include data period 1985 to 2005.out of 21 years statistical period about 85 percent of the available data, meaning 18 years (216 months) were used for training the network and 3 years (36 months) remaining in the test stage were applied. for this purpose, facilities and functions available in matlab software were made and for every month a network was designed with under 5 percent error. after studying network performance indicators, including the correlation coefficient, root mean square error, mean squares error, mean absolute error, mean percentage it was observed that the maximum temperature predicted with acceptable accuracy has been made in such away that the rate of correlation coefficient was 0.99 and the maximum difference with the real data was 0.83 ⺠c.
منابع مشابه
Prediction of monthly rainfall using artificial neural network mixture approach, Case Study: Torbat-e Heydariyeh
Rainfall is one of the most important elements of water cycle used in evaluating climate conditions of each region. Long-term forecast of rainfall for arid and semi-arid regions is very important for managing and planning of water resources. To forecast appropriately, accurate data regarding humidity, temperature, pressure, wind speed etc. is required.This article is analytical and its database...
متن کاملStream Flow Prediction in Flood Plain by Using Artificial Neural Network (Case Study: Sepidroud Watershed)
In order to determine hydrological behavior and water management of Sepidroud River (North of Iran-Guilan) the present study has focused on stream flow prediction by using artificial neural network. Ten years observed inflow data (2000-2009) of Sepidroud River were selected; then these data have been forecasted by using neural network. Finally, predicted results are compared to the observed dat...
متن کاملPrediction of ultimate strength of shale using artificial neural network
A rock failure criterion is very important for prediction of the ultimate strength in rock mechanics and geotechnics; it is determined for rock mechanics studies in mining, civil, and oil wellborn drilling operations. Also shales are among the most difficult to treat formations. Therefore, in this research work, using the artificial neural network (ANN), a model was built to predict the ultimat...
متن کاملscour modeling piles of kambuzia industrial city bridge using hec-ras and artificial neural network
today, scouring is one of the important topics in the river and coastal engineering so that the most destruction in the bridges is occurred due to this phenomenon. whereas the bridges are assumed as the most important connecting structures in the communications roads in the country and their importance is doubled while floodwater, thus exact design and maintenance thereof is very crucial. f...
Prediction of Cardiovascular Diseases Using an Optimized Artificial Neural Network
Introduction: It is of utmost importance to predict cardiovascular diseases correctly. Therefore, it is necessary to utilize those models with a minimum error rate and maximum reliability. This study aimed to combine an artificial neural network with the genetic algorithm to assess patients with myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure. Materials & Methods: This study utilized a m...
متن کاملPrediction of Egg Production Using Artificial Neural Network
Artificial neural networks (ANN) have shown to be a powerful tool for system modeling in a wide range of applications. The focus of this study is on neural network applications to data analysis in egg production. An ANN model with two hidden layers, trained with a back propagation algorithm, successfully learned the relationship between the input (age of hen) and output (egg production) variabl...
متن کاملمنابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
تحقیقات جغرافیاییجلد ۲۵، شماره ۹۸، صفحات ۵۷-۷۸
کلمات کلیدی
میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com
copyright © 2015-2023